Article published in The Sarasota Herald Tribune dated 2/7/08
Sales losses dropped last year, but at a slower pace
By STEPHEN FRATER
stephen.frater@heraldtribune.comSouthwest Florida's four biggest and best-financed real estate brokers saw annual sales drop last year -- to the tune of $728 million -- but that was at half the pace of the drop of the prior year.
That has some of the big brokers voicing optimism about 2008, with some calling a bottom to the regional market and noting that home-selling activity picked up in the latter half of 2007.
The collective drop at Michael Saunders & Co., Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate Inc., Re/Max Properties and Prudential Palms Realty last year was roughly a fifth of a stunning $3.5 billion sales decline from 2005 to 2006.
Sales of single-family homes in the Sarasota-Bradenton market dropped 11 percent in 2007, one of the better performances statewide. Only Panama City, with 10 percent, saw a smaller decrease. Charlotte County-North Port slumped 25 percent, putting it in the middle of the pack for the 20 largest markets statewide.
Sarasota-Bradenton is "definitely at the bottom," says Prudential Palms President Scott Sosso, whose firm saw a decline of about 17 percent last year.
Sosso points to many houses that are now selling for 2003-04 prices. The 2007 median sales price was $285,700, while the December price of $246,900 was comparable to overall prices in 2004.
But more broadly, the real estate community remains divided about whether real estate has reached its nadir.
Some think that Sarasota-Bradenton bottomed out in September-October. Prominent Orlando economist Hank Fishkind said the local market stabilized in both prices and volume at that time, and he is predicting flat prices through 2010, as the region chews through excess inventories.
Others are not so sure, noting that 2008 is likely to be another year marked by more mortgage problems.
A host of adjustable-rate mortgages are on track to reset to higher levels, a phenomenon that could again pinch homeowners as it has in the last two years.
Southwest Florida is also experiencing record foreclosures as a result of the speculative buying spree of 2004-2006, particularly in North Port, and that is adding to inventory of unsold homes.
The next few months could demonstrate which of these two camps is right about the nadir. If the nation sinks into a recession, as a growing number of economists think it will, that could clearly modify the outlook.
For the region's four biggest brokers, 2007 represented an average 17 percent drop in sales. That came on the heels of the 40 percent decline from 2005 to 2006.
Michael Saunders & Co.
The largest brokerage in dollar terms in Manatee, Sarasota and Charlotte counties, Michael Saunders & Co., saw sales fall from $1.7 billion to $1.5 billion -- roughly 12 percent.
Saunders, with 535 associates working out of 16 offices, closed 2,229 transactions last year.
It is clear that Saunders' second half was far stronger that the first: at mid-June, the company reported $658 million in sales out of its eventual $1.5 billion.
Last year, Saunders closed a one-year-old office in North Port because of weakness in that market and launched two internationally oriented marketing joint ventures.
Coldwell Banker
Residential Real Estate
The largest Florida brokerage, Sarasota-based Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate Inc., saw its statewide sales drop from $14.7 billion to $11.2 billion, or about 24 percent.
But the portion of Coldwell's business in Manatee, Sarasota and Charlotte counties saw sales decline 17 percent, perhaps bolstering the notion that the local market is faring better than the rest of the state. Regional sales dropped from $1.35 billion to $1.12 billion.
Clark W. Toole III, the company's president and chief operating officer, says the market's performance, coupled with new tax advantages, historically low interest rates and a broad selection of homes, has him optimistic about 2008.
Coldwell, which has 551 associates in 19 offices in Manatee, Sarasota and Charlotte counties, closed 2,385 transactions last year.
Re/Max Properties
Re/Max Properties saw the steepest decline in sales among the top four brokerages -- the second year in a row. Sales in Southwest Florida dropped from $991 million to $696 million, or nearly 30 percent.
Last year's performance might have contributed to the recent decision to merge two local Re/Max affiliates -- Re/Max Properties and Re/Max Gulfstream Realty -- creating Florida's largest business under that brand.
That added mass could provide a leg up this year, the company says.
"From the residential sales perspective, it puts us very near the top of the local real estate market," said Peter Crowley, president of the combined entity.
On a pro-forma basis, the newly formed Re/Max Alliance Group would have had 3,290 transactions with a combined sales volume of about $1 billion. It has more than 400 agents in 12 offices.
The merger marked the third in recent months.
In December, Rooks Morris Real Estate swallowed Cristello Properties, while Hunt Real Estate Corp. of New York bought Sarasota's ERA Mount Vernon Realty.
Prudential Palms Realty
Prudential Palms -- the product of the 2006 merger of Sarasota-based Prudential Palms and Prudential Cascade -- saw sales drop from $603 million to $500 million.
The company's agent count remained stable at about 200, but the company closed one of its six offices in 2007.
Sosso, Prudential Palms' president, is hopeful, noting that inventory levels of homes are modestly decreasing and that the pace of newly built houses has all but stopped.
"This is going to lead to stabilization in prices and then, over the next two years, we will start to see a bounce in prices in our region," he said.
Staff writer David Gulliver contributed to this report.